An unwritten political understanding that helped unite the Awliyahan community ahead of Garissa’s 2022 gubernatorial election is increasingly coming under strain as early manoeuvring for the 2027 General Election gathers momentum.
The reported agreement involved Governor Nathif Jama and Ambassador Mohamed Mukhtar Shidiye, who entrusted Awliyahan traditional elders with selecting a single candidate to contest the governorship in order to avoid splitting the community’s vote.
According to political figures familiar with the consultations, the elders settled on Jama as the community’s preferred candidate. Shidiye subsequently withdrew his bid and supported Jama’s candidature, a decision that contributed to the governor’s successful re-election.
Supporters of the arrangement say Ambassador Shidiye accepted the elders’ verdict after receiving assurances that he would be backed for the governorship in 2027, when Jama will be ineligible to seek another term after serving the constitutional two-term limit.
Although the reported understanding was never formalised, it has remained a key reference point in discussions about succession politics within the Awliyahan community.
Governor Jama is widely expected to seek the Garissa Senate seat at the end of his gubernatorial tenure, while Awliyahan elders have yet to publicly endorse a successor for the county’s top seat. The absence of a clear position has fuelled speculation that the consensus which characterised the 2022 election may be weakening.
Those backing Shidiye argue that honouring the reported agreement would demonstrate respect for traditional consensus-building and reinforce trust in decisions reached by community elders. They maintain that he fulfilled his part of the understanding by stepping aside in 2022 and should now receive the community’s backing.
Others, however, argue that political leadership cannot be determined years in advance. They contend that the choice of the next governor should reflect prevailing political realities, public opinion and fresh consultations among elders and the wider community.
The debate has placed the Awliyahan traditional leadership at the centre of Garissa’s emerging succession politics.
The reported pact that helped shape Garissa’s 2022 election has become a focal point in the county’s succession debate, testing the enduring influence of traditional consensus in modern electoral politics.
