An intensifying El Niño weather pattern is expected to trigger severe flooding, disease outbreaks and widespread humanitarian challenges across East Africa in the coming months, with Kenya, Somalia and Uganda among the countries facing the highest risk, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) has warned.
The humanitarian agency said communities already recovering from years of drought, conflict and funding shortages are now at risk of another devastating climate shock unless governments and aid agencies scale up early preparedness measures.
The IRC said Somalia remains particularly vulnerable, with forecasts indicating a 60 per cent chance of above-average rainfall across the country’s south and southwest.
The expected rains, combined with flooding from Ethiopia’s highlands, could cause rivers to overflow, contaminate water sources and increase outbreaks of cholera and acute watery diarrhoea.
More than 4.8 million people in Somalia currently require urgent humanitarian assistance, a figure expected to rise if flooding worsens conditions.
The agency noted that severe floods in 2023 destroyed nearly 13,000 tonnes of crops and caused extensive damage to homes and infrastructure, leaving communities with fewer resources to recover from another disaster.
Kenya is also expected to experience significant impacts, with climate forecasters estimating an 80 to 82 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will persist through 2026.
While parts of the country are currently experiencing dry weather, authorities are preparing for heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides later in the year under the government’s national disaster response framework.
Neighbouring Uganda faces a similar outlook, with forecasts pointing to a wetter final quarter of the year after months of below-average rainfall. More than 413,000 people were affected during the country’s last major El Niño event.
IRC Vice President for Emergencies Bob Kitchen said vulnerable communities were facing multiple crises simultaneously.
“We’re watching several emergencies converge at once, and the places least equipped to absorb another shock are the ones in the crosshairs,” he said.
He urged governments and donors to invest in anticipatory action, arguing that preparing communities before disasters strike saves lives and reduces humanitarian costs.
The organisation is calling for increased funding to enable humanitarian agencies to deliver cash assistance, clean water, early warning information and other emergency support before heavy rains begin.
Beyond East Africa, the IRC warned that El Niño is also expected to bring drought, extreme heat and glacier-related flooding to Pakistan and Afghanistan, while Bangladesh continues to battle deadly monsoon flooding that has displaced thousands of Rohingya refugees.
The agency said climate-driven disasters are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, making early action essential to protect vulnerable populations from further displacement, food insecurity and disease outbreaks.
